I really don’t like the clickbait titles and the media is already making enough panic around the virus. This article won’t be about cryptocurrencies or bitcoins related to the virus. It is about a thread that takes lives. Not rallies, not buyouts nor bidding strategies. We are the leaders of a fast-moving global economy, and I think we should take the responsibility of our teams, friends, and family. I will quote a lot from Tomas Pueyo-s great article published here. I don’t want to take the credit from him, I honestly believe that this was one of the greatest (if not the greatest) articles about the whole spread, clear message and lot of statements based on actual data which makes the whole article a masterpiece. I am trying my best to give you some information, do-s and do not-s. It might be nothing new, but I think it is necessary.
Briefing about Covid-2019
Coronavirus COVID-2019 is a life-threatening disease, which just went global. You got a great chance, that is already in your area you just don’t realize it yet.
You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first? Will I hurt the economy too much?
But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.
It is hard to understand what people actually doing right now ( you know, toilet papers, cumulations, etc.) If you are making the basic cautions it is not that hard to avoid infection.
- Avoid personal contacts – events, workplaces, public transport, traveling – as easy as it sounds.
- If you can not avoid do not go closer than 1.5 meters (6 feet)
- Wash your hands! Cannot stress this one out enough. (As the joke says, wash it like you chopped Jalapenos and going for a jerk off)
- Use hand sanitizer
- If you are experiencing any symptoms, call an ambulance – do not go to the local MD or hospitals. (This might vary according to your local regulations)
- Cover your coughs and sneezes
- Wear a mask if you are sick.
- DON’T WEAR A MASK IF YOU ARE NOT SICK
- Clean AND disinfect frequently touched surfaces daily. This includes tables, doorknobs, light switches, countertops, handles, desks, phones, keyboards, toilets, faucets, and sinks.
Still, the way to prevent spreading and infection are to stay at home.
Virus spreading data
According to Tomas-s research, I will just pull the plug. It is most likely TEN TIMES WORSE than you think. There is a graph below which states the number of the known hosts in Wuhan – yellow line and there is a gray one which shows the actual number of patients built backward from data. As you can see on the lockdown day there were 400 patients diagnosed but the actual number was more than 2500 which means nearly 2100 was not diagnosed.
The fast lockdown and the act of the government slow down the spread – it might look like it doesn’t – they just discovered more people who were already sick.
France claims 1,400 cases today and 30 deaths. Using Tomas-s method the real cases are between 24,000 and 140,000.
The true number of coronavirus cases in France today is likely to be between 24,000 and 140,000.
How to act now?
As a business leader or employee, you need to take responsibility for your personal actions. I believe most IT and Crypto related companies have the ability to do remote work.
If you act now, the others will thank you later.
Arrange your home office or send home your employees – it is not overreacting they will thank you later. Clean and disinfect your home and office – this bastard can stay alive up to 9 days on a simple plastic surface.
Try to keep the rules, avoid personal contacts and try to stay at home. I don’t say don’t get the groceries or your medicine. Just cut the bullshit, no pubs, cinemas, birthdays and parties. They will thank you later.
You have the responsibility for your actions. You might get sick, stay in bed for a few days and sleep it out. But there are others, sick people, the elderly, etc. who might die because you had the urge to go to that party and take the bus or a cab.
Timing is the key
The sooner you act the better. The problem with the spreading that it slowly kills the infrastructure. The hospitals will be overloaded so does the medical staff. They will be exhausted, starting to make mistakes which cause their life. The shutting down of the infrastructure and the overload of the hospitals and the medical supplies will lead to a much higher mortality rate.
If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them.
Cumulative distancing – model of cases taken one day apart.
In this theoretical model that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases! So, maybe, if the Hubei authorities had declared the lockdown on 1/22 instead of 1/23, they might have reduced the number of cases by a staggering 20k.
And remember, these are just cases. Mortality would be much higher, because not only would there be directly 40% more deaths. There would also be a much higher collapse of the healthcare system, leading to a mortality rate up to 10x higher as we saw before. So a one-day difference in social distancing measures can end exploding the number of deaths in your community by multiplying more cases and higher fatality rate.
So 1 day late in the lockdown would add up to 20k more infected. One single day.
So if you are a business leader, group leader or someone who cares you should act now. Send your coworkers and yourself home, max the shit out the home office and that old Nintendo that you haven’t played in years. Be productive, have a rest and wait for this to play out. And you will sleep well, that you did your part at the right time.
Tomas Pueyo-s great article published here with a lot more data and skills in this field. Thanks, Tomas for writing this!
Other images and quotes: Tomas Pueyo